When the Revolution comes….

People were forced to adapt to a world without electricity. Due to the collapse of government and public order, many areas are now ruled by warlords and militias.

Living without electricity in today’s technological world may be difficult to imagine. Yet, according to an academic study, it may become increasingly common.

Research by Hugh Byrd, Professor of Architecture at the University of Lincoln, UK, and Steve Matthewman, Associate Professor of Sociology at the University of Auckland, New Zealand, predicts that today’s occasional blackouts are just dress rehearsals for the future, when they will occur with greater frequency and severity.

Global power cuts will become more regular as electrical supply becomes increasingly vulnerable and demand continues to grow. Byrd said: "We are reliant on a series of interlocking technical systems. Our research explores what happens when the power goes off, and why the security of fuel supply is such a pressing social problem.”

Guaranteed electrical power is under threat because of resource constraint, with the depletion of fossil fuel reserves and the transient nature of renewable energy sources. The Western world also relies on ageing systems.

Matthewman said: "Infrastructural investment across Europe and the USA has been poor, and our power generation systems are more fragile than most people think. The vulnerability of our electricity systems is highlighted by one particular blackout which took place in Italy in 2003, when the whole nation was left without power because of two fallen trees.”

Network failure due to inadequate energy is also a growing concern: US household electricity usage increased by 1300% between 1940 and 2001, and looks ahead to the future when demand for electric vehicles and air conditioning systems is expected to rocket. China and India are following a similar pattern.

Byrd said: "There is also an ever-increasing market for electric vehicles. Western societies are becoming more dependent upon electrical power, yet supply will struggle to meet demand, especially given the rate of population growth.”

The full paper, entitled "Blackouts: a sociology of electrical power failure", was published in the Social Space Scientific Journal in January this year.

• CDA recognises the increasing importance of this sector, with an Industry Focus on Water and Utilities in this issue, Energy Supplements next month and in the Dec/Jan issue, and an Industry Focus on Renewables in Oct/Nov.