Hindsight bias

Also known as the knew-it-all-along effect or creeping determinism, hindsight bias has its roots in psychology. It embodies any combination of three aspects: memory distortion, beliefs about events’ objective likelihoods, or subjective beliefs about one’s own prediction abilities.

Traditional process safety training typically involves the study of an incident, such as Fukushima or Buncefield, and then works backwards to see where mistakes were made. This makes it easy to make assumptions on the decisions leading up to an event and causes hindsight bias, which also prevents learning.

Now, a new training offer, launched by the Institution of Chemical Engineers Safety Centre (ISC), is designed to tackle the problem. Using interactive video footage, the trainee is presented with various decisions as a process safety incident unfolds, but importantly, without prior knowledge of the outcome. And while directed at trainees, the lessons are no less valid for experienced engineers.

Although it operates from Melbourne, Australia, the ISC has a global remit with the aim to advance process safety worldwide. And so, at the Hazards 26 Conference, held in Edinburgh during late May, the ISC launched three case studies: Coal Mine, Gas Plant and Tank Farm. The Coal Mine case study focuses on simulating design, construction and commissioning decisions, while the others replicate operational decision-making scenarios, which would typically occur while on shift at these facilities. The case studies include a detailed explanation of how these facilities work, so no pre-knowledge is necessary.

According to ISC Director Trish Kerin, "This method of communicating a case study has never been done before. We have focused on beginning with the background detail, and then placing the audience as the decision-makers during key points in the case study. The consequence and actual incident the scenario is based on are not revealed until the end. This allows people to experience the context in which decisions are made, rather than focus on the actual decisions."

The training aids have already received endorsements from chemical engineers in industry and academia, including Professor Peter Ashman, Head of Chemical Engineering at University of Adelaide, Australia, and Robert Wright, Safety, Security, Health and Environment (SSHE) Manager at PTT Exploration and Production. Wright says “the case studies are a stimulating way of understanding process safety management.”